Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.4 | 3.8% | 47 | 0.41% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 10-19 | 30 | 16.6 | 13.1% | 162 | 1.19% | 235 | 1.73% |
| 20-29 | 40 | 25.1 | 19.5% | 241 | 1.15% | 338 | 1.61% |
| 30-39 | 40 | 22.0 | 17.2% | 213 | 1.57% | 280 | 2.06% |
| 40-49 | 37 | 16.1 | 12% | 148 | 1.41% | 209 | 2% |
| 50-59 | 41 | 18.6 | 14.7% | 182 | 1.45% | 238 | 1.9% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 11.0 | 8.9% | 110 | 0.96% | 167 | 1.45% |
| 70+ | 22 | 14.7 | 10.8% | 133 | 1.27% | 170 | 1.62% |
| All ages | 240 | 128.6 | 100% | 1236 | 1.18% | 1706 | 1.63% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 2.9 | 3.2% | 29 | 0.37% | 37 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 7.1 | 7.5% | 68 | 0.81% | 86 | 1.02% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 13.0 | 12.7% | 114 | 1.6% | 142 | 2% |
| 30-39 | 30 | 17.3 | 18.1% | 163 | 1.94% | 214 | 2.55% |
| 40-49 | 35 | 17.4 | 18.4% | 166 | 2.14% | 214 | 2.76% |
| 50-59 | 39 | 16.0 | 18.1% | 163 | 1.68% | 204 | 2.1% |
| 60-69 | 27 | 11.6 | 13.4% | 121 | 1.44% | 160 | 1.9% |
| 70+ | 9 | 6.9 | 8.5% | 77 | 1.08% | 98 | 1.38% |
| All ages | 174 | 92.1 | 100% | 901 | 1.39% | 1155 | 1.79% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 2.4 | 4% | 21 | 0.39% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 6.1 | 10.5% | 55 | 1.01% | 79 | 1.46% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 7.3 | 12.8% | 67 | 1.48% | 97 | 2.14% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 9.3 | 15.6% | 82 | 1.51% | 96 | 1.77% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 9.3 | 15.5% | 81 | 1.63% | 108 | 2.17% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 9.4 | 16% | 84 | 1.24% | 112 | 1.65% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 7.1 | 12.2% | 64 | 1.01% | 86 | 1.36% |
| 70+ | 4 | 7.3 | 14.1% | 74 | 1.17% | 92 | 1.45% |
| All ages | 92 | 58.3 | 100% | 524 | 1.16% | 691 | 1.53% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.4% | 22 | 0.19% | 28 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 9.6 | 11.6% | 108 | 0.65% | 122 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 19.6 | 21.8% | 203 | 0.95% | 240 | 1.13% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 13.1 | 13.2% | 123 | 0.9% | 142 | 1.04% |
| 40-49 | 24 | 16.9 | 16.3% | 152 | 1.12% | 175 | 1.29% |
| 50-59 | 24 | 16.7 | 16.7% | 156 | 1.1% | 179 | 1.26% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 10.4 | 10.3% | 96 | 0.68% | 106 | 0.75% |
| 70+ | 11 | 7.7 | 7.7% | 72 | 0.55% | 82 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 125 | 95.6 | 100% | 932 | 0.79% | 1074 | 0.91% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 18.6 | 5.5% | 165 | 0.27% | 207 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 48 | 41.7 | 13.6% | 408 | 0.57% | 526 | 0.74% |
| 20-29 | 61 | 70.9 | 23.6% | 705 | 0.68% | 949 | 0.91% |
| 30-39 | 53 | 47.9 | 15.8% | 471 | 0.62% | 639 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 60 | 42.1 | 13.6% | 407 | 0.62% | 555 | 0.85% |
| 50-59 | 41 | 36.7 | 12.6% | 378 | 0.58% | 501 | 0.76% |
| 60-69 | 24 | 24.6 | 7.7% | 229 | 0.42% | 303 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 32 | 23.6 | 7.6% | 227 | 0.46% | 300 | 0.61% |
| All ages | 332 | 306.0 | 100% | 2990 | 0.55% | 3980 | 0.73% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 215 | 182.0 | 3.7% | 1816 | 0.28% | 2384 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 627 | 521.7 | 10.4% | 5077 | 0.67% | 6536 | 0.86% |
| 20-29 | 982 | 862.9 | 17% | 8316 | 1.1% | 10872 | 1.44% |
| 30-39 | 935 | 796.3 | 16% | 7797 | 1.03% | 10176 | 1.34% |
| 40-49 | 954 | 753.7 | 14.9% | 7294 | 1.04% | 9602 | 1.37% |
| 50-59 | 991 | 810.6 | 16.3% | 7944 | 0.97% | 10420 | 1.28% |
| 60-69 | 664 | 565.6 | 11.5% | 5612 | 0.74% | 7383 | 0.98% |
| 70+ | 554 | 497.1 | 10.3% | 5019 | 0.78% | 6451 | 1.01% |
| All ages | 5922 | 4989.7 | 100% | 48875 | 0.84% | 63824 | 1.1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163 | 172.7 | 161.5 | 128.6 | 72.4 | 32.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178.6 | 92.1 | 52.1 | 39.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152.7 | 58.3 | 33.6 | 38.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.8 | 73.7 | 112.8 | 95.6 | 46.4 | 27.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.8 | 74 | 91.4 | 306 | 231 | 20.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109.6 | 86.4 | 143.6 | 4989.7 | 4007.4 | 30.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 11.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.42 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2177"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges